Aston Villa's nightmare start explained: Why players are deflated, the ambitious gamble they had to take, questions Monchi must answer and how Unai Emery will fight back

As Brentford and Aston Villa prepared for the penalty shootout that would decide Tuesday’s Carabao Cup tie, the difference between them was striking.

Brentford head coach Keith Andrews had gathered his players and staff into a huddle. A few yards away, Villa players milled about individually or in smaller groups, looking unsure of themselves. It was no surprise when Brentford prevailed 4-2 on spot-kicks.

Though a snapshot cannot tell a whole story, it seemed to capture what Villa have become since May 25, when defeat at Manchester United on the final day of the season killed off their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League.

Without a league goal since May 16, Villa's players look dispirited. Boss Unai Emery does not seem himself. Senior figures are angry at financial rules they feel stop ambitious clubs in their tracks. Their transfer campaign satisfied very few.

Despite the din on social media, travelling supporters are often the best barometer of a mood among a fanbase and in west London on Tuesday night, the 2,500 in Villa colours roared on their team throughout. Emery has delivered some of the best results of modern times for Villa and it will take a great deal for the matchgoing fan to turn against him.

But this is the toughest period of his reign and Sunday’s trip to in-form Sunderland - who have won both of their home games so far since returning to the top flight - is crucial.

Emery’s response is always to work harder. In training and video analysis sessions, he has concentrated heavily on the movement of his attacking players, asking them to make more frequent and intelligent runs.

The magic formula is elusive - but a solution needs to be found in rapid time.

What has happened to the players?

By complaining so loudly about spending restrictions, have Villa chiefs accidentally made the squad feel defeated?

While with England, Ezri Konsa said the rules had ‘killed’ Villa’s summer recruitment and Daily Mail Sport understands there was widespread frustration among the players at the lack of top-quality signings.

When Jacob Ramsey was sold to Newcastle, captain John McGinn sounded irritable when he posted on Instagram that ‘it seems to be the way football is set up these days!’

Ramsey’s departure hit hard. The homegrown midfielder was popular with team-mates, some of whom felt he was effectively pushed out to pay the bills. On the flipside, £40million was a good price for a player with a patchy injury record and whose wage requests Villa were unwilling to match. But it didn’t make the squad any happier.

There are transfer and contract issues, too. Tyrone Mings, Boubacar Kamara and Lucas Digne were all handed new deals but Youri Tielemans, Pau Torres, Matty Cash and McGinn have entered the final two years of their agreements.

Daily Mail Sport has learned that McGinn had a four-year deal on the table this summer from at least one Premier League rival, but Villa would not sell – the exact stance they have taken with Morgan Rogers. All those aforementioned players have discussed extensions.

Rogers had interest from Chelsea and Tottenham but, given no encouragement from Villa, they never bid. The 23-year-old is a valuable player for club and country, and Villa’s plan was to reward him with a new deal. It would be only natural if Rogers were attracted by Champions League football and, like his colleagues, he is desperate to regain it after last season's taster.

Ollie Watkins seems jaded. He has yet to score - a problem shared by every Villa player not named Harvey Elliott this season - and has had only two shots on target.

Three times since January, Watkins has thought he might leave Villa – twice for Arsenal, once for Manchester United. As a childhood Gunners fan, he was understandably keen to join them. At key times last season, on-loan Marcus Rashford was preferred to Watkins, who can go into his shell if he feels his manager does not back him totally.

Then there is Emi Martinez. For months, Villa players had been expecting Martinez to leave – but it did not happen, despite the Argentina star pushing for a move.

Daily Mail Sport understands Martinez’s manner has not always impressed the Villa hierarchy but his return at Everton last week was promising. Along with Mings and McGinn, the 33-year-old is Villa’s strongest personality. They need his leadership now.

Issues with squad management

It is easy to look at Villa’s wage bill - a whopping 91 per cent of revenue in 2024 – and their struggles with domestic and European spending rules, and conclude that they have been mismanaged. The reality is more subtle.

Aston Villa are a big club with a demanding fanbase. Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are rightly praised for their intelligent recruitment and cleverly timed sales.

But look at their average Premier League finishing positions since promotion: 12th for Brentford, Brighton and Palace, and 13th for Bournemouth (either side of two years in the Championship). If Villa continually sold their best players and finished in the bottom half, support from the stands would drain away.

Expectations are a little different when your club have won the European Cup – not to mention pushing last season’s Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain to the limit in the last eight. Under Emery, Villa have finished seventh, fourth and sixth, qualifying for Europe every time.

Yet Villa cannot compete long-term with the Premier League’s so-called ‘Big Six’ without taking risks, and they have done so with salaries. When Emery arrived in 2022, Villa were already carrying a relatively high wage bill and since then, almost every key player has been given an improved contract.

Emery himself is thought to earn between £10m and £15m annually, and his backroom staff runs to double figures. Those appointments do not come cheap. Villa cannot generate the revenue of the Big Six, especially if they are in the Europa League. To try to challenge them while keeping the books in good order, they must sell high and/or qualify regularly for the Champions League.

Transfer chief Monchi arrived two years ago with the grand title ‘president of football operations’ and a reputation to match. Recruitment has, however, been underwhelming. Of the players signed in the Monchi era, only Rogers has been an automatic starter, and he was Emery’s personal choice.

Virtually every Villa player has improved under Emery, yet today’s market leans towards youth. The average age of Villa’s first-choice starting XI is 26.3 and even if they wanted to sell the excellent England regular Ezri Konsa, who turns 28 in October, potential buyers would probably prefer to pay £40-50m for a younger centre back who can develop and hold a resale value.

Only Rogers and – perhaps – Boubacar Kamara (though his injury record is an issue) would command the kind of fees that solve financial issues at a stroke.

Emery's transfer dealings

One of the best coaches and tacticians of his generation, Emery is also heavily involved in choosing targets. Should he be so hands-on? In the six transfer windows under Emery, 21 players have been signed permanently. Only 11 are part of his squad this season and three of the 21 (Lewis Dobbin, Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea) have never made a competitive appearance.

While financial rules have influenced some of those deals, it still looks haphazard. Most of the players in the first XI were signed when Dean Smith, Christian Purslow and Johan Lange were at the club.

Why did Villa sign Donyell Malen for £19m in January? Emery has never seemed sold on the Dutchman and Daily Mail Sport understands Villa were even prepared to let him leave during the summer.

Was Amadou Onana really worth £50m? Was Ross Barkley a wise signing? After two years of trying to move on Emi Buendia, it reflects Villa’s lack of options that he is suddenly back in favour.

Selling smartly is important and Villa did well to generate up to £71m for Jhon Duran, £40m for Ramsey and £20m for Jaden Philogene, though they may have missed the chance to get top prices for Watkins and Martinez. And given their issues, it might have been wiser to sell Rogers and use the funds to refresh the squad.

Either way, Monchi is under pressure. His transfer work at Sevilla helped bring 10 major trophies – an astonishing record across two spells, and he retains close links to his home country, returning when his schedule allows.

It would be no surprise to see him back in La Liga eventually. Outside Spain, we have still to see the best of him. Whether we ever will at Villa is up for debate.

Structure

When billionaire co-owner Nassef Sawiris hired Emery, he gave him the keys to the castle. Very few top clubs these days are run like this and even though Sir Alex Ferguson controlled Manchester United, he usually had a strong chief executive alongside him.

It is not clear who fulfils that role at Villa. When Purslow was CEO, he operated across the club. When he left in 2023, Chris Heck was nominally his successor but had a different title and mainly oversaw the business and commercial side.

It is unclear how much daily contact he had with Emery or Monchi. It may help if Heck’s replacement as ‘president of business operations’, Francesco Calvo, has close ties to the football people.

Though it has nothing to do with Emery, there has also been significant turnover behind the scenes since he arrived, with changes in several senior roles.

Instead of reporting to a CEO, Emery has a direct line to Sawiris, who keeps in close contact with the club but last year moved his business HQ from London to Abu Dhabi. An owner will often rely on an experienced CEO to run the club daily. Though Calvo’s role may develop into something like this, it seems unlikely that Emery would ever have to answer to him.

Whatever happens in the background, though, results will decide everything. At their best, Villa could record three straight wins against Sunderland, Bologna and Fulham to close out September. But Emery’s men are some way off that and every fixture looks a huge obstacle.

When Villa returned to the Premier League in 2019, Sawiris declared ‘the sky is the limit’ and he was right. Thanks to Emery, Villa were able to reach for the stars but it may take all his flair and experience to stop them falling back to Earth with a bump.