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The 2025 Melbourne Cup brings together one of the deepest staying fields in recent memory, mixing proven internationals with emerging local talents.
Each contender arrives at Flemington with a unique path to the race that stops a nation, from European Group One winners to Australian handicappers peaking at the right time.
The 3200-metre test remains the ultimate challenge, demanding stamina, timing and the perfect ride.
Some horses enter with strong credentials and light weights, while others must overcome history, wide draws, or heavy imposts.
Here’s how every runner can win the Cup - and why they might not.
Al Riffa (FR)
French raider Al Riffa during a trackwork session at Werribee Racecourse ahead of the Melbourne Cup
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien, Jockey: Mark Zahra, Weight: 59 kg, Barrier: 19
How they can win: He brings high-class European staying credentials [Irish St Leger & Curragh Cup] and handles both wet and dry surfaces, so if he gets a rhythm behind the early tempo he can pounce late.
Why they won’t: He carries topweight of 59kg and draws a wide barrier which history shows is a major handicap for winners of the Cup.
Buckaroo (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Craig Williams, Weight: 57 kg, Barrier: 12
How they can win: With strong form in Australia (including a top-run in the Caulfield Cup) he has proven fitness, class and connections who know how to win big races. He should settle midfield and unleash a strong finish.
Why they won’t: He has not yet proven himself over the full 3200m at elite level and his weight means he’ll be giving ground to a number of genuine stayers.
Arapaho (FR)
Trainer: Bjorn Baker, Jockey: Rachel King, Weight: 56.5 kg, Barrier: 15
How they can win: A genuine stayer with a win over two miles in Australia, who loves a testing surface; if the pace is on and it becomes a slog, he can grind the leaders down.
Why they won’t: At nine years old, he is out of the usual peak age for winners and there are younger stayers with more upside; the barrier may force him to do extra work early.
Vauban (FR)
Legendary trainer Gai Waterhouse will be looking for another win in the race that stops a nation
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, Jockey: Blake Shinn, Weight: 56.5 kg, Barrier: 2
How they can win: A near-inside barrier gives him every chance to settle close to the pace, and his profile suggests he can handle the big Flemington track and the 3200m trip.
Why they won’t: His recent form has been underwhelming and older-stayers record isn’t strong; he needs to improve from his last run to win this event.
Chevalier Rose (JPN)
Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu, Jockey: Damian Lane, Weight: 55.5 kg, Barrier: 5
How they can win: From Japan with staying form to 3600m, he has shown he can stay all day; if the race turns into a test of stamina he is a live chance.
Why they won’t: His recent form in the highest class has been ordinary and he needs to adapt to Australian handicap conditions and traffic in a massive field.
Presage Nocturne (IRE)
Trainer: Alessandro Botti, Jockey: Stéphane Pasquier, Weight: 55.5 kg, Barrier: 9
How they can win: He showed strong late sectionals in the Caulfield Cup and proven to 3000m and beyond; with a decent run he can hit the line hard.
Why they won’t: Has yet to prove dominance at the very top level and the 3200m presents a bigger test; will need all favours in the run to make it count.
Middle Earth (GB)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher, Jockey: Ethan Brown, Weight: 54.5 kg, Barrier: 13
How they can win: Has won at Flemington and his campaign shows he is up for staying distances; the moderate weight gives him some shot if he brings his best.
Why they won’t: His recent form has been inconsistent and he was well beaten in the Caulfield Cup, his ceiling may be a level below the very top.
Meydaan (IRE)
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford, Jockey: James McDonald, Weight: 54 kg, Barrier: 22
How they can win: He’s got strong European form and with a world-class jockey upgrade, if he can navigate the wide draw and slot into a decent rhythm he could hit the line well.
Why they won’t: The wide barrier is a considerable disadvantage in a 24-horse handicap and he has limited proven form at the 3200m distance against the best stayers.
Absurde (FR)
Trainer: Willie Mullins, Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy, Weight: 53.5 kg, Barrier: 4
How they can win: A third Melbourne Cup attempt gives him experience; from a soft draw, McEvoy knows how to win these big handicaps and he has a staying profile.
Why they won’t: He has not yet delivered a major breakthrough in this type of race and others may have progressed beyond his current level; needs a perfect run.
Flatten The Curve (IRE)
Trainer: Henk Grewe, Jockey: Thore Hammer-Hansen, Weight: 53.5 kg, Barrier: 17
How they can win: A true stayer with wins beyond 3000m and improves on turf; at a relatively light weight he could be the one catching tired leaders.
Why they won’t: He has faced weaker opposition and is unproven in this company; barrier 17 means extra early work and that could cost his finishing run.
Land Legend (FR)
Chris Waller won his first Melbourne Cup with his horse Verry Elleegant in 2021 and will be hoping to reach the summit again this year
Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: João Moreira, Weight: 53.5 kg, Barrier: 16
How they can win: Waller has found improvement in him this campaign and at Flemington he has shown he can handle the big track; Moreira gives him a tactical edge.
Why they won’t: His two most recent runs have been disappointing and he must raise his game significantly to be competitive here; he may be a step below the top tier.
Smokin’ Romans (NZ)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher, Jockey: Ben Melham, Weight: 53.5 kg, Barrier: 11
How they can win: A gritty stayer who makes his own luck and thrives when there is cut in the ground; at 53.5kg he is well-weighted and can pounce late if leaders tire.
Why they won’t: Now nine years old and many of his wins have been at shorter trips; the 3200m and field depth may overwhelm him.
Changingoftheguard (IRE)
Trainer: Kris Lees, Jockey: Tim Clark, Weight: 53 kg, Barrier: 24
How they can win: If he can get across early and lead or sit prominent from the extreme wide draw, he can set a testing tempo and hold on from that vantage.
Why they won’t: Barrier 24 is extremely hard to overcome in a 3200m handicap; he also needs to lift significantly from his previous runs to match the class of the top stayers.
Half Yours (AUS)
Jamie Melham riding Half Yours defeats Beau Mertens riding River of Stars in the Caulfield Cup
Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy, Jockey: Jamie Melham, Weight: 53 kg, Barrier: 8
How they can win: Comes in with a major staying win at the Caulfield Cup, has a good draw, and at 53kg the weight is favourable; if he reproduces that peak form he’s hard to beat.
Why they won’t: This is his first attempt at the full 3200m and the Cup pressure plus depth of the field could expose any stamina or fitness margin deficiency.
More Felons (IRE)
Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Tommy Berry, Weight: 53 kg, Barrier: 23
How they can win: If the race pans out as a moderate tempo affair and he can come from off the pace with a strong finish, his low weight gives him a chance.
Why they won’t: Barrier 23 is tough and his form while improved is still below the very best here; he may struggle to make up the ground in time.
Onesmoothoperator (USA)
Trainer: Brian Ellison, Jockey: Harry Coffey, Weight: 53 kg, Barrier: 6
How they can win: Has won a major lead-in race in Australia, draws a good barrier, and if he settles well, he has the chance to finish strongly.
Why they won’t: The step up to 3200m and the class of international stayers may be beyond him; the age (8yo) also raises questions in this company.
Furthur (IRE)
Trainer: Andrew Balding, Jockey: Michael Dee, Weight: 52 kg, Barrier: 7
How they can win: At 52kg he is carrying one of the lightest weights in the race, has staying form and if improvements continue he could upset the more fancied rivals.
Why they won’t: His best form has come at slightly shorter trips and this distance at Flemington against seasoned stayers is a tall order without flawless execution.
Parchment Party (USA)
Trainer: William Mott, Jockey: John Velazquez, Weight: 52 kg, Barrier: 3
How they can win: Good draw, strong staying form in the U.S., and at a light weight he could take advantage of any soft sections and lead into the straight with momentum.
Why they won’t: He is a U.S. import adapting to Australian conditions and turf, and the field depth plus Australian staying specialists pose a big challenge.
Athabascan (FR)
Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton, Jockey: Declan Bates, Weight: 51.5 kg, Barrier: 1
How they can win: From barrier 1 he can settle just off the pace, has a genuine staying profile, and with a light weight he could find a path through and finish strongly.
Why they won’t: His class is arguably a notch below some of the others and the 3200m at this level demands every edge - he may lack that extra gear.
Goodie Two Shoes (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien, Jockey: Wayne Lordan, Weight: 51.5 kg, Barrier: 20
How they can win: She is a tough mare who stays longer than many give her credit for, and from 51.5kg she carries one of the lowest weights — if she gets into a groove she could outrun her odds.
Why they won’t: Barrier 20 is a big ask, and in a Cup field filled with males and proven stayers she may simply be out-muscled late.
River Of Stars (IRE)
Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Beau Mertens, Weight: 51.5 kg, Barrier: 14
How they can win: She improved at the staying trips this season with a major placing in the Caulfield Cup and she has the low weight to threaten a top finish if she handles the pace.
Why they won’t: She still meets a few older rivals who have greater staying power and experience in this type of handicap; plus the draw gives few buffer lanes.
Royal Supremacy (IRE)
Ciaron Maher is part of the new guard of trainers and already has a Melbourne Winner in Gold Trip under his belt
Trainer: Ciaron Maher, Jockey: Robbie Dolan, Weight: 51 kg, Barrier: 21
How they can win: He carries the lowest weight in the race, comes in with good momentum, and if he can get into the right part of the field early he could sprint home strongly.
Why they won’t: Barrier 21 is difficult and being low weight is not always enough in a 3200m handicap filled with high-quality stayers; may be vulnerable in the last 600m.
Torranzino (NZ)
Trainer: Paul Preusker, Jockey: Celine Gaudray, Weight: 51 kg, Barrier: 18
How they can win: A Geelong Cup winner gives a strong staying springboard, the weight is light and if the pace collapses he could roll through and take advantage.
Why they won’t: The depth here is much greater than his previous opposition and the barrier 18 means he may be too far back or forced wide early, compromising his finishing kick.
Valiant King (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Jye McNeil, Weight: 51 kg, Barrier: 10
How they can win: With a Bart Cummings win plus a strong Caulfield Cup placing, he has coming-into form and at 51kg from a good barrier he offers value and upside.
Why they won’t: Despite his profile he only has two wins from nineteen starts and in a field stacked with stayers he may lack that top-end finishing punch to win this level handicap.
