8 hours ago
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The race that stops the nation could turn into a battle through mud and mist. So will the play into the hands of your runner? Or sink it into the Flemington turf?
The Bureau of Meteorology is warning that rain and icy winds may lash Flemington on Tuesday, with a stubborn rain band refusing to clear Victoria. A soft or heavy track now looks likely, sending punters scrambling to reassess the field.
Senior meteorologist Angus Hines says Cup Day will bring 'showers to pepper the southern states,' hinting at a soggy showdown.
For some runners, the wet could be a blessing, slowing the tempo and playing to their stamina. For others, it could spell disaster as their stride sinks into the heavy ground.
The Runners That Will Benefit From The Wet
Half Yours
Race favourite Half Yours is no stranger to the wet and is a proven performer on a heavy track
Trained by Tony and Calvin McEvoy, Half Yours has built a reputation as a strong, grinding stayer who doesn't rely on turn of foot. His recent Caulfield Cup performance showed he's capable of sustaining pressure across long trips, and the wet surface could amplify that advantage.
With only 53 kg, he'll skip through softer sections while heavier rivals tire. The gelding's fluent stride and lower action have proven effective on rain-affected ground, suggesting he can adapt quickly if Flemington turns heavy. A slowing tempo would only strengthen his staying credentials, making him a genuine threat in a slogging finish.
Torranzino
Labelled a genuine 'mud-lapper' by racing pundits, Torranzino is one of the few runners whose form improves markedly when rain hits. His balance and sure-footed action help him maintain rhythm through sticky conditions, while others lose traction.
Heavy ground typically suits horses with a steady cadence and stamina to grind rather than sprint, and Torranzino's wins on Soft 7–Heavy 8 surfaces confirm that. The predicted rain could neutralise some of the classier speed horses and turn the race into a true endurance test, exactly the kind of staying battle Torranzino thrives in. Expect him to keep finding late.
Buckaroo
Buckaroo comes from the UK, so running in the wet on sodden tracks is par for the course for this stayer
A British-bred stayer from the Chris Waller yard, Buckaroo has the pedigree and physique to excel in testing ground. His European campaigns featured several solid runs on soft turf, highlighting his adaptability. When the going turns heavy, Buckaroo's natural staying power comes to the fore, his large stride covers ground efficiently without needing dry footing.
Experts note he will benefit from a rain-affected track, as slower tempos and shifting ground suit horses that can sustain effort rather than sprint home. A wet Cup could give Buckaroo the tactical edge to stay within striking distance and outlast fading challengers.
Presage Nocturne
The Irish-bred stayer trained by Alessandro Botti has long been regarded as a tough, durable galloper capable of handling varying conditions. His European form shows success on soft going, and the long Flemington straight in the rain should hold no fear.
Presage Nocturne's compact build helps him find balance in slippery conditions, while his efficient action minimises energy loss in deep turf. Analysts have flagged him as a serious wet-track player, believing that moisture in the surface will slow the race to a pace that suits his grinding style. If the heavens open, expect Presage Nocturne to loom late.
The Runners That Will Struggle
Chevalier Rose
Japanese raider Chevalier Rose loves a firm track and may battle the distance if the rain sets in
Chevalier Rose is a Japanese-bred stayer whose best performances have come on firm ground. His record shows little success when the surface has moisture, suggesting he prefers faster conditions with less give. A heavy track would likely blunt his finishing burst and make it harder to quicken late.
His stride pattern and action are better suited to good or slightly yielding turf, not deep, holding ground. With the rain forecast for Flemington, Chevalier Rose could find himself losing rhythm in the run and struggling to maintain speed through the final 400 metres when the surface gets sticky and testing.
River of Stars
River of Stars has shown good form over staying distances but has rarely handled wet tracks. Her best runs have been on firm or good ground where she can unleash a strong finish. In the wet, her lighter frame and reliance on acceleration may work against her as races on heavy going tend to reward stamina over speed.
If the track becomes soft or heavy, she may struggle to find traction when the tempo lifts in the straight. A slow, boggy surface could sap her power, making it difficult to sustain her usual strong finishing effort against proven mud runners.
Meydann
Meydann enters the Melbourne Cup as a promising stayer but lacks proven form on rain-affected tracks. His limited exposure to heavy conditions suggests he may be unsettled by deep turf and shifting ground. Horses with longer, loping strides often labour when the track is soft, and Meydann fits that description.
He may find it difficult to hold position in the middle stages once the field begins to string out. The heavy surface could also magnify his inexperience over the distance, reducing his stamina reserves late and leaving him vulnerable to more seasoned stayers who thrive in endurance conditions.
Land Legend
A wet surface is likely to break the rhythm of Land Legend's stride, which could his Melbourne Cup campaign unravel
Land Legend's racing history indicates a clear preference for firm footing, where he can roll along at an even tempo and maintain stride efficiency. On a wet track, that rhythm tends to break down, and he's been less effective whenever the going has been soft.
His size and action make it hard for him to lift through deep ground, which often leads to early fatigue. With showers and cold winds forecast, he may be one of the first to feel the pinch. A heavy track would turn the race into a stamina battle that doesn't suit his running style.
